The ZANU-PF ‘Electoral Cliff’

-By Rejoice Ngwenya
I emerged bruised but unfazed from an encounter with ZANU-PF hardliners while documenting the COPAC second stakeholders’ conference. I am more than ever convinced that these people are aliens from outer space. Their dogmatic bigotry, spiteful entitlement and senseless arrogance can only be of one provenance – the Galaxy of Satan. But let me confess, the prospect of outright victory against the creaky ZANU-PF edifice of tyranny sustains my excitement. The just ended American elections are for me – a lesson in time.

Barack Obama has been re-elected president of the United States of America [USA] for the second time. Unlike our very own ‘life president’ Robert Mugabe, Mr. Obama accepts his constitutionally provided for terms. Even if ‘my people still want me’ – Obama cannot alter conditions to enable a third bite of the presidential cherry. The good news is that bitter political rivalry between Democrats and Republicans did not result in a single death, kidnapping or displacement during campaigns. That is how a perfect democracy functions. On my side of the Atlantic Ocean, Mugabe wants elections in March 2013 when no one else is prepared except his diamond-funded militias. SADC has been at pains to persuade him that political reform is more important than perpetuating a 32 year-old oppressive regime. Mugabe insists he is ‘tired of sharing power’ and wants another opportunity to ‘rout Western puppets once and for all’. Even if it means a violent, single-competitor plebiscite!

Obama’s final presidential term is not going to be easy either. Of immediate concern is USA’s ‘fiscal cliff’, which, according to Wikipedia, “is the popular shorthand term used to describe the conundrum that the U.S. government will face at the end of 2012, when the terms of the Budget Control Act of 2011 are scheduled to go into effect”. In theory, these are payroll tax and deep spending cuts agreed upon as part of the debt ceiling deal of 2011 which will affect over 1,000 government programs. Republicans want to cut spending and avoid raising taxes, while Democrats are looking for a combination of spending cuts and tax increases. The ‘cliff’ aspect is that these ‘George Bush-era’ actions will plunge the USA into an irretrievable recession. Obama has to convince sceptical Republicans that taxing the rich is a logical means of raising revenue.
Mugabe is equally determined to go in a proverbial blaze of glory. He knows that free and fair elections will not only expose his diamond cronies but also subject ZANU-PF’s primeval dictatorship to retributive justice. Bring in the element of debilitating factional ‘Young Turk’ wars in his fractious party; Mugabe’s political empire is tottering on the brink of a deep political ravine. With no Thabo Mbeki to cushion his fall; add a generally ‘hostile’ SADC - he might as well start ordering wood pallets for his furniture! ZANU-PF may deny it, but it is true that ‘future presidential aspirants’ Joyce Mujuru, Emerson Mnangagwa and ZAPU unity relic Simon Khaya Moyo would love a more permissible political environment to displace an obstinate Mugabe. Ironically, it is only the MDCs that can create such ideal ‘exit conditions’ – but not in March, not even in June 2013 – worse still without full electoral and political reforms. The crisis confronting Mugabe is that while reforms will give ZANU-PF ‘moderate’ presidential aspirants hope, such conditions will also make it easier for either Morgan Tsvangirayi or Welshman Ncube to hit the exclusive presidential jackpot. ZANU-PF has therefore only one choice – leap over the free and fair electoral cliff for a quick and painless death.