The earth's climate is dynamic and is always changing through a natural cycle. These changes are studied by scientists who then advise on measures to be taken so as to mitigate the effects of this change. The scientists gather evidence from tree rings, pollen samples, ice cores, and sea sediments. The causes of climate change can be divided into two categories - those that are due to natural causes and those that are created by man.
There are a number of natural factors responsible for climate change. Some of the more prominent ones are continental drift, volcanoes, ocean currents, the earth's tilt, and comets and meteorites. The separation of the landmasses (continental drift) changed the flow of ocean currents and winds, which affected the climate. When a volcano erupts it throws out large volumes of sulphur dioxide (SO2), water vapour, dust, and ash into the atmosphere. Although the volcanic activity may last only a few days, yet the large volumes of gases and ash can influence climatic patterns for years.
Human causes of climate change are born out of industrialisation. Natural resources are being used extensively for construction, industries, transport, and consumption. Consumerism (our increasing want for material things) has increased by leaps and bounds, creating mountains of waste. Also, our population has increased to an incredible extent. All this has contributed to a rise in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Fossil fuels such as oil, coal and natural gas supply most of the energy needed to run vehicles generate electricity for industries, households, etc. The energy sector is responsible for about ¾ of the carbon dioxide emissions, 1/5 of the methane emissions and a large quantity of nitrous oxide. It also produces nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide which are not greenhouse gases but do have an influence on the chemical cycles in the atmosphere that produce or destroy greenhouse gases.
The United Nations climate panel says rich nations, blamed by poorer countries for emitting most of the harmful greenhouse gases, should cut emissions between 25-40 percent from 1990 levels by 2020 to avoid dangerous climate change. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations held in Thailand, one of the final forums for discussions on climate before the December 2009 World Summit on climate in Copenhagen, highlighted the need for adequate financing to assist developing countries in meeting the challenges of climate change.
Climate change has resulted in the prevalence of the El Nino phenomenon which on its own is responsible for wild weather, droughts, floods and other extreme events. As a consequence of global warming due to climate change; rising temperatures, a shift in seasons, and extreme weather are forecasted by experts to cut output in some areas and wipe out crops entirely in others. Excessive rainfalls and flooding do not only result in loss of crops and livestock but also leads to loss of human lives. And what exacerbates the plight of the human race is that world breadbaskets like Brazil are also affected.
Brazil is the leading exporter of coffee, beef, soybeans, orange juice, and other farm products but these are expected to suffer as temperatures continue to soar. “Only one cash crop stands to gain: warmer temperatures will double the area suitable for sugar cane as early as 2020,” says Hilton Silveira Pinto and Eduardo Assad, who agronomists at the University of Campinas in Sao Paulo state and the government's agriculture research institute, Embrapa, respectively.
A study by the Washington – based International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) financed by the Asian Development Bank and World Bank notes that climate change may cut corn, wheat and rice yields across developing countries by 2050 thereby boosting prices and causing hunger. The report notes that as a consequence there will be 25 million more underfed children by 2050. The report predicts improved farming conditions in developed world where a yield increase of between 2.4 percent and 3.1 percent in rain-fed wheat is projected for Canada, China and northern Russia.
In Southern Africa, a recent meteorological report by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office, projects temperatures to rise by 10% at least by 2060 with 4% being the global average. This is severe as experts note that even slight changes in temperature or precipitation can be devastating for the flowering, growth and harvest of crops. Livestock also suffers as animal fodder is processed from part of the wheat, barley, maize, sorghum and other cereals whose growth will be curtailed by the climate change.
James Thurlow, a researcher with IFPRI shared with irinnews that "If you take into account the worst 10-year rainfall period, then Zambia's economy could lose as much as $7.1 billion in the next 10 years and drive 648,000 people below the poverty line.” He noted that extreme changes in rainfall and temperature in the past 10 years have already lowered GDP by 0.4 percent every year. The southern and central regions of Zambia, where people were experiencing climate shocks such as droughts and floods, could be among the worst affected.
The Weekender, a South African publication quotes Michael Sanderson, co-author of the Met Office report revealing that “food production will be adversely affected.” Sanderson highlighted that the exact impact on South Africa was not discussed in the study but he noted that in the region “the temperature rise will decrease crop productivity and increase the risk of hunger. Some plants and animal species will become extinct. Freshwater supplies will be reduced, and water quality is likely to be adversely affected. There may be a forced migration of people to more habitable areas.”
In this time of crisis, technology can help farmers adapt to climate change, but the long and short of it is that the bulk of farmers from the developing world can not afford these new technologies while also their inability to use machines increases labour costs. For most farmers irrigation is expensive and when they manage to set up irrigation systems, they have to face the reality of the scarcity of water sources. In the developed world where water issues are not a major concern for many farmers, scientists forecast that genetically modified plants will have difficulties in adapting to temperature increases beyond just 2 degrees Celsius.
But there are scientists like Edson Silva, director at the Parana state research company Epagri who are optimistic. Silva, whose company has exported a drought-resistant apple variety from Brazil to France, Germany among other Western countries, is confident that science can provide 90 percent of the answers to climate change.
Speaking at the opening of the Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN) 2009 Regional Policy Dialogue and Annual General Meeting held recently in Maputo Mozambique, FANRPAN Chairman and Secretary General of Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Mr. Sindiso Ngwenya said Africa’s dependence on rain-fed agriculture has left her vulnerable to changing climatic conditions that call for adaptation and mitigation measures.
“Mitigation is a sure way of survival for our farmers. As we head to Copenhagen, Africa must speak with one voice in having agriculture – the basis of our development – included in the final text of the Copenhagen deal. There should be no deal without agriculture. Our farmers must be helped to better respond to climate change without depriving them of their livelihoods,” said Ngwenya who also noted that Africa has for too long depended on foreign researchers hence the need to improve agricultural research and systems to disseminate appropriate new technologies and supporting farmers to adopt them.
While calling on Africa to modernise agriculture, Ngwenya said, “Africa’s budget priorities should move from defence and administration costs to agriculture and research. Research alone is not enough. Without access to resources, agriculture will not take off; hence it is critical that our small holder farmers have access to financial resources to upscale agriculture development.”
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